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With the monsoon in its final month, nearly half of El Niño-vulnerable districts across 25 states/UTs face deficient rainfall: DTE analysis

downtoearth.org.in · Kiran Pandey · 2026-09-02T06:19:08.861Z

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/climate-change/with-the-monsoon-in-its-final-month-nearly-half-of-el-ni%C3%B1o-vulnerable-districts-across-25-statesuts-face-deficient-rainfall-dte-analysis

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As the southwest monsoon enters its final month, nearly half of India’s El Niño-vulnerable districts are facing deficient rainfall, with high-priority, low-irrigation regions hit hardest.

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(hidden) Of these, 111 are ‘high priority’ districts, with less than 25 per cent of their area under irrigation, making them the most vulnerable to a weak monsoon.

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████ ██ █████████ █████ ██ ████████████ ████████████ ██████████████████ █████ ███ ███████████████ █████ ███ █████ ████ ████████ ██ ████ ██████████████As the southwest monsoon enters its final month, nearly half of India’s El Niño-vulnerable districts are facing deficient rainfall, with high-priority, low-irrigation regions hit hardest.████ ██ ███████ ████████ █████ █████████ ████ █████████ ████ ██████ ███ ████████ ████████ █████ ███████ ██████ ████ ██ ████ █████████ ███████████ █ ████████ ███████ ████ █████████ ████ ████████ ███ █████ ██████████████ ██ ███ ███████ ████ ████ ███ ██ ████████ ███████ ███████████████ ██████████ ██████████ ██ ███ ████ ██████████ ████████████ ██████████ ████ ████████ ██████ █████████ ██ ███████ █████████ ███████████████████ ██ ███ ████ ██ █████████████████ █████████ ███ ██ ███ ████ ██ ██████████████ █████████ ████ ████ ████████ ██████ █████████ ██ ███████ █████████ ████████████ █████ ████████ ██ ███████████ ███ ███████ ███████ ████ ██ ████ ███ █████ ████ 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03Provenance

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downtoearth.org.in

downtoearth.org.in · since 2004

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Ownership

Down to Earth is published by the Centre for Science and Environment, an Indian environmental non-governmental organization.

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The magazine was created to supplement the research, analyses, and documentation efforts of the Centre for Science and Environment.

Revenue model

The outlet is published by the Centre for Science and Environment, an environmental non-profit organization in India.

The author

Kiran Pandey

Topic expertise

Kiran Pandey serves as the Programme Director for the Environment Resource Unit at the Centre for Science and Environment.

Track record

Kiran Pandey works as a journalist for Down To Earth, analyzing topics such as farm distress, crop losses, and drought.

Controversies

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The paper trail

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101domain GRS Ltd.
Registered
2004-03-31 · 22 yrs
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Hosted by
Amazon Technologies Inc. · United States

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04Fact Check

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Fact check ready. 10 claims assessed.

Mostly unresolved

1 of 10 claims supported · 10 of 22 checked

  • Supported1
  • Disputed0
  • Misleading0
  • Unverified9
Claim 01
highUnverified

Nearly half of India’s El Niño-vulnerable districts are facing deficient rainfall as the southwest monsoon enters its final month.

While sources confirm that around 315 districts are identified as vulnerable to El Niño, none provide data supporting the specific claim that nearly half of them are facing deficient rainfall.

  1. ?

    What proportion of El Niño-vulnerable districts in India are recording deficient rainfall?

    The sources do not state the exact proportion of El Niño-vulnerable districts currently recording deficient rainfall.

  2. ✓

    Which official meteorological agency publishes district-wise monsoon rainfall data for India?

    The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is the official agency that publishes district-wise rainfall data for India.

    sandrp.infacebook.commausam.imd.gov.in

Checked 17 Sept · 2 sources cited

All sources (5)
  • Contextindia.mongabay.com
    El Niño brings drought declaration into sharper focus

    Despite government assurances of adequate preparations, the looming El Niño has cast an uncertain shadow over crop productivity in India. So far, there has been a rainfall deficit of 14% over the country since the beginning of the monsoon s

  • Contextpib.gov.in
    Centre Reviews Kharif Preparedness Amid El Niño Concerns - PIB

    Around 315 districts have been identified as potentially affected by weak monsoon conditions. Of these, 111 districts have been categorised as

  • Contextsandrp.innot cited
    Rainfall – SANDRP

    An analysis of the daily district wise rainfall data from India Meteorological Department (IMD) for India’s South West Monsoon 2025 (June-Sept rainfall was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal) shows that there were 2224 (2555 in 2024 SW Monsoon) inst

  • Contextfacebook.comnot cited
    India Meteorological Department is the nodal agency for providing ...

    Rainfall Statistics are now calculated for 738 districts. With the launch of indigenously developed Block wise Rainfall Monitoring Scheme, IMD

  • Contextmausam.imd.gov.innot cited
    Rainfall Information | India Meteorological Department - मौसम

    Rainfall Recorded from 0830 hrs of 11-09-2026 to 0830 hrs of 12-09-2026 LEGENDS Click on above districts on map for rainfall information. ### Forecasts Urban Meteorological Services Short to Medium Range Model Guidance Extended Range

Claim 02
lowUnverified

Around 36 per cent—or more than one in three—of India’s ‘high-priority’ districts have received either deficient or largely deficient rainfall.

What was checked

Around 36 per cent of India’s high-priority districts have received either deficient or largely deficient rainfall.

Only one independent source could be found for this, which is not enough to rule on it.

  1. ✓

    What percentage of India's high-priority districts received deficient or largely deficient rainfall?

    Around 36 percent of the 111 high-priority districts have received deficient or largely deficient rainfall.

    insights.tridge.com
  2. ✓

    How are high-priority districts defined in terms of irrigation and vulnerability?

    High-priority districts are identified based on scientific data assessing vulnerability to low rainfall and inadequate irrigation, specifically where irrigation coverage is below 25 percent.

    pib.gov.insmartinfoindia.comeng.ruralvoice.inindia.mongabay.com

Checked 17 Sept · 5 sources cited

All sources (5)
Claim 03
lowUnverified

147 districts out of 315, or about 47 per cent across 25 states/Union Territories (UTs), are currently recording deficient rainfall according to Down To Earth’s analysis of cumulative rainfall between June 1 and August 30, 2026.

What was checked

147 districts out of 315 across 25 states and Union Territories recorded deficient rainfall according to Down To Earth’s analysis of cumulative rainfall between June 1 and August 30, 2026.

Only one independent source could be found for this, which is not enough to rule on it.

  1. ✓

    How many districts out of 315 recorded deficient rainfall between June 1 and August 30, 2026?

    147 districts recorded deficient rainfall between June 1 and August 30, 2026.

    instagram.cominstagram.com
  2. ✓

    What was the cumulative rainfall analysis for districts across states and UTs by Down To Earth?

    Down To Earth's analysis found that 147 out of 315 districts across states and UTs recorded deficient rainfall between June 1 and August 30, 2026.

    instagram.cominstagram.com

Checked 17 Sept · 2 sources cited

All sources (2)
Claim 04
highSupported

Of the 315 districts, 111 are ‘high priority’ districts with less than 25 per cent of their area under irrigation.

What was checked

Of the 315 districts, 111 are high-priority districts with less than 25 per cent of their area under irrigation.

Multiple news reports consistently confirm that out of 315 vulnerable districts, 111 are classified as high-priority because they have less than 25 percent irrigation coverage.

  1. ✓

    How many of the 315 vulnerable districts have less than 25 per cent of their area under irrigation?

    Out of the 315 vulnerable districts, 111 are categorized as high-priority or most vulnerable due to having less than 25 percent irrigation coverage.

    ndtv.commorungexpress.comindianexpress.combusiness-standard.comthehindubusinessline.com
  2. ✓

    What is the criteria for high-priority districts based on irrigation percentage?

    High-priority districts are identified as those having an irrigation coverage of less than 25 per cent.

    ndtv.commorungexpress.comindianexpress.combusiness-standard.comthehindubusinessline.com

Checked 17 Sept · 5 sources cited

All sources (5)
Claim 05
lowUnverified

40 of the 147 districts recording deficient or large-deficient rainfall are among the 111 ‘high-priority’ districts.

What was checked

40 of the 147 districts recording deficient or large-deficient rainfall are among the 111 high-priority districts.

The provided sources lack the specific figures required to verify whether 40 of the 147 deficient rainfall districts are among the 111 high-priority districts.

  1. ?

    How many high-priority districts among the 111 recorded deficient or large-deficient rainfall?

    The sources do not provide the exact count of how many high-priority districts among the 111 recorded deficient or large-deficient rainfall, though they mention high-priority vulnerable districts received deficient rainfall.

  2. ?

    What is the breakdown of deficient rainfall districts by priority category?

    The sources do not specify the breakdown of deficient rainfall districts by priority category.

Checked 17 Sept

All sources (2)
  • Contextndtv.comnot cited
    315 Districts Across India At High Risk Due To Rainfall Deficit, El Nino

    The ministry classified these districts based on irrigation coverage, a key factor determining their resilience to rainfall shocks. Of the 315 districts, 111 districts with less than 25 per cent irrigation coverage were categorised as the m

  • Contextinstagram.comnot cited
    Instagram

    Around 36 per cent—or more than one in three—of India’s ‘high-priority’ districts, identified as the most vulnerable agricultural districts, have received either deficient or largely deficient rainfall.

Claim 06
highUnverified

Ramanagara received just 19 mm of rain since June 1 against a seasonal normal of 283.5 mm.

What was checked

Ramanagara received 19 mm of rain since June 1 against a seasonal normal of 283.5 mm.

The provided sources do not contain evidence supporting the specific rainfall and normal figures stated for Ramanagara.

  1. ?

    How much rainfall did Ramanagara receive since June 1?

    The sources do not provide data confirming Ramanagara received 19 mm of rain since June 1 against a seasonal normal of 283.5 mm; one source reports 188.6 mm for Ramanagara.

    linkedin.com
  2. ?

    What is the seasonal normal rainfall for Ramanagara?

    The provided sources do not contain the seasonal normal rainfall figure of 283.5 mm for Ramanagara.

Checked 17 Sept

All sources (2)
Claim 07
highUnverified

Ramanagara had a rainfall shortfall of 93 per cent, the worst among all high-priority districts.

None of the provided sources contain evidence supporting the claim about a 93 per cent rainfall shortfall in Ramanagara.

  1. ?

    What was the rainfall shortfall percentage for Ramanagara?

    The provided sources do not establish a rainfall shortfall percentage of 93 per cent for Ramanagara.

  2. ?

    Which high-priority district experienced the worst rainfall shortfall?

    The provided sources do not state which high-priority district experienced the worst rainfall shortfall.

Checked 17 Sept

All sources (2)
Claim 08
highUnverified

West Garo Hills in Meghalaya received just 412.5 mm against a seasonal normal of 1,488.2 mm.

What was checked

West Garo Hills in Meghalaya received 412.5 mm of rain against a seasonal normal of 1,488.2 mm.

The provided sources contain no information regarding rainfall amounts or seasonal normals for West Garo Hills in Meghalaya.

  1. ?

    How much rainfall did West Garo Hills receive against its seasonal normal?

    The provided sources do not contain information about how much rainfall West Garo Hills received.

  2. ?

    What is the seasonal normal rainfall for West Garo Hills in Meghalaya?

    The provided sources do not mention the seasonal normal rainfall for West Garo Hills in Meghalaya.

Checked 17 Sept

All sources (2)
Claim 09
highUnverified

West Garo Hills had a rainfall shortfall of 72 per cent, making it the second-worst affected high-priority district after Ramanagara.

While sources confirm West Garo Hills had a 72 per cent rainfall deficit, none mention Ramanagara or establish it as the second-worst affected high-priority district after Ramanagara.

  1. ✓

    What was the rainfall shortfall percentage for West Garo Hills?

    West Garo Hills reported a rainfall deficit or shortfall of 72 per cent.

    northeasttoday.inindiatodayne.inptinews.comtheprint.in
  2. ?

    Which high-priority district was the second-worst affected by rainfall shortfall after Ramanagara?

    The provided sources do not mention Ramanagara or its comparison with West Garo Hills.

Checked 17 Sept · 4 sources cited

All sources (4)
Claim 10
highUnverified

Of the 76 districts in the medium-priority category, 43 or 57 per cent have recorded deficient or large-deficient rainfall.

The provided sources do not contain data regarding the number of medium-priority districts or their rainfall levels, leaving the claim completely unverified.

  1. ?

    How many districts in the medium-priority category recorded deficient or large-deficient rainfall?

    The sources do not provide information on how many medium-priority districts recorded deficient or large-deficient rainfall.

  2. ?

    What is the total number of medium-priority districts analyzed for rainfall?

    The sources do not provide the total number of medium-priority districts analyzed for rainfall.

Checked 17 Sept

All sources (2)
  • Contextuscode.house.govnot cited
    43 USC 1702: Definitions - OLRC Home

    The term "areas of critical environmental concern" means areas within the public lands where special management attention is required

  • Contextzr.planning.nyc.govnot cited
    Chapter 1 | Zoning Resolution

    | 76 to 78 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | .5 - | 74 to 76 | 1.5 | 1.0 | .5 | .5 - - | | 72 to 74 | .5 | .5 | .5 - - [...] | | | --- | | Midtown Districts | Districts Whose Regulations Apply | | C5P C5-2.5 | C5-2 | | C6-4.5 | C6-4 | | C6

Prism's read of the sources it found, not a final ruling. For claims that matter, follow the citations and judge for yourself.

05The Full Picture

Was it the full story?

One outlet's version is one angle. Prism pulls how other outlets reported the same event and shows what this article covered, softened, or left out.

Coverage comparison ready.

Significant gaps

1 covered · 4 softened · 17 missing

9 facts other outlets treated as essential are absent from this article.

1 of 11 facts other outlets treat as essential are carried here.

Compared against 18 independent owners

  • Missing17
  • Softened4
  • Covered1

Searched: “India deficient rainfall El Nino vulnerable districts monsoon analysis 2026” · 18 outside sources

Missing from this article

17
  • EssentialReported by 1 independent outlet

    Rayalaseema in Andhra Pradesh is experiencing an acute water crisis in 2026 due to a significant southwest monsoon rainfall deficit exacerbated by El Nino.

    The article mentions Andhra Pradesh having high-priority districts with below-normal rainfall, but does not mention Rayalaseema or an acute water crisis there in 2026.

    What the sources say
    • plutusias.com“Rayalaseema, a semi-arid region in Andhra Pradesh, is experiencing an acute water crisis in 2026 due to a significant deficit in southwest monsoon rainfall, exacerbated by the strengthening phase of El Niño.”
  • EssentialReported by 1 independent outlet

    India recorded its driest June in 12 years and the fifth-driest since nationwide rainfall records began in 1901.

    The article does not mention June being the driest in 12 years or fifth-driest since 1901.

    What the sources say
    • bbc.com“India has recorded its driest June in 12 years, and the fifth-driest since nationwide rainfall records began in 1901, according to the country's weather department.”
  • EssentialReported by 1 independent outlet

    The Union Agriculture ministry is holding weekly internal meetings to assess the impact of the likely-deficient monsoon in the wake of El Nino on crop production.

    The article does not report on weekly internal meetings held by the Union Agriculture ministry.

    What the sources say
    • moneycontrol.com“The Union Agriculture ministry is holding weekly internal meetings to assess the impact of the likely-deficient monsoon in the wake of El Nino on crop production.”
  • EssentialReported by 1 independent outlet

    Government officials expect the output of pulses and oil seeds, mainly tur and soybean, to drop year-on-year in 2026-27.

    The article does not discuss government expectations of output drops for pulses and oilseeds.

    What the sources say
    • moneycontrol.com“Government officials expect the output of pulses and oil seeds--mainly tur and soybean--to drop year-on-year in 2026-27.”
  • EssentialReported by 1 independent outlet

    The Agriculture ministry directed states to prepare district-wise crop strategies and promote short-duration crops during the kharif season.

    The article does not mention any directive from the ministry to states regarding district-wise crop strategies.

    What the sources say
    • economictimes.indiatimes.com“Agriculture ministry has directed states to prepare district-wise crop strategies, and promote short-duration crops such as pulses, certain millets and vegetables during the kharif season because they require less water, mature quickly and help”
  • EssentialReported by 1 independent outlet

    Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan called for advance planning in rain-deficient districts for Kharif 2026 due to El Nino.

    Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is not mentioned in the text.

    What the sources say
    • impressivetimes.com“El Nino impact prompts Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan to call for advance planning in rain-deficient districts for Kharif 2026.”
  • EssentialReported by 1 independent outlet

    The Centre directed 12 states to prepare contingency plans for possible rainfall deficits caused by El Nino.

    The article does not report that the Centre directed 12 states to prepare contingency plans.

    What the sources say
    • dailypioneer.com“the Centre has directed 12 states to prepare contingency plans for possible rainfall deficits.”
  • EssentialReported by 1 independent outlet

    Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan stated that overall rainfall has been 43% below normal so far.

    The text contains no statement by Shivraj Singh Chouhan regarding an overall 43% rainfall deficit.

    What the sources say
    • dw.com“"Overall, rainfall has been 43% below normal so far.”
  • EssentialReported by 1 independent outlet

    Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Union Minister of Agriculture Shivraj Singh Chouhan reviewed the drought preparedness situation.

    Amit Shah and Shivraj Singh Chouhan are not mentioned in the article text.

    What the sources say
    • news.webindia123.com“Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Union Minister of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Shivraj Singh Chouhan reviewed the situation and assessed its likely impact on agriculture, water availability and overall preparedness, with an emphasis on coordinated measures to minimise adverse effects ·”
  • Reported by 1 independent outlet

    In Kerala, the southern state of India, the monsoon brought about a fifth less rain than normal during the building super El Nino.

    The article does not mention rainfall statistics for Kerala.

    What the sources say
    • theguardian.com“This year, the southern state of Kerala has felt the brunt of the building super El Niño, with about a fifth less rain than normal.”
  • Reported by 1 independent outlet

    Official data indicates a rainfall deficit of up to 78.3 percent in Annamayya district due to the 2026 monsoon.

    The article does not mention Annamayya district or its rainfall deficit percentage.

    What the sources say
    • plutusias.com“Official data indicates a rainfall deficit of up to 78.3% in Annamayya district, with the entire region facing critical agricultural and hydrological stress.”
  • Reported by 1 independent outlet

    Groundwater levels in Sri Sathya Sai district dropped to 21.19 metres and in Annamayya district to 18.22 metres.

    The article does not contain groundwater level data for Sri Sathya Sai or Annamayya districts.

    What the sources say
    • plutusias.com“Groundwater tables in key districts (Sri Sathya Sai: 21.19m, Annamayya: 18.22m) have dropped significantly, increasing borewell failure risks in semi-arid zones.”
  • Reported by 1 independent outlet

    The vulnerable districts are spread across 12 states including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Bihar, Jharkhand, Telangana, Andhra Prades

    The article mentions various states and UTs but does not list these specific 12 states together in this context.

    What the sources say
    • global-agriculture.com“Most of these districts are spread across 12 states, including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Bihar, Jharkhand, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.”
  • Reported by 1 independent outlet

    Farmers had sown summer crops across 18.27 million hectares till 30 June, down from 23.65 million hectares during the same period last year.

    The article does not mention summer crop sowing figures or the June 30 comparison.

    What the sources say
    • bbc.com“Data released by the federal agriculture ministry showed farmers had sown summer crops across 18.27 million hectares till 30 June, down from 23.65 million hectares during the same period last year.”
  • Reported by 1 independent outlet

    Government rice stocks stood at 39.7 million tonnes on 1 July, nearly three times the official buffer requirement.

    The article does not provide government rice stock statistics.

    What the sources say
    • bbc.com“Official data showed government rice stocks stood at 39.7 million tonnes on 1 July, nearly three times the official buffer requirement of 13.5 million tonnes, providing a cushion against any short-term disruption in supplies.”
  • Reported by 1 independent outlet

    The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare reviewed fertilizer, seed availability, monsoon progress, and El Nino conditions.

    The article mentions the agriculture ministry's statements on monsoon and districts, but not a specific review of fertilizer or seed availability.

    What the sources say
    • vajiramandravi.com“The **Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare** recently reviewed the availability of **fertilizers, seeds, monsoon progress, and El Niño conditions** during its weekly review meeting.”
  • Reported by 1 independent outlet

    The Agriculture Ministry set up an El Nino Monitoring Cell and a Crop Weather Watch Group.

    The article does not mention the creation of an El Nino Monitoring Cell or Crop Weather Watch Group.

    What the sources say
    • dw.com“The Agriculture Ministry has also set up an El Nino Monitoring Cell and a Crop Weather Watch Group, while states have been asked to establish control centers and coordinate closely with the federal government as officials track rainfall, crop conditions and sowing progress.”

Softened or under-specified

4
  • EssentialReported by 1 independent outlet

    Government data shows the area planted with summer crops until the end of June is down by nearly 23% from the corresponding period in 2025.

    The article contains no data regarding summer crop planting figures down by 23% from 2025.

    What the sources say
    • bbc.com“Government data shows the area planted with summer crops until the end of June is down by nearly 23% from the corresponding period in 2025, with rice sowing falling by a quarter.”
  • Reported by 1 independent outlet

    Kharif crops had been sown across 531.25 lakh hectares as of July 10, 2026, which was around three per cent lower than the normal five-year area.

    The article does not provide kharif crop sowing figures or dates for July 10, 2026.

    What the sources say
    • ndtv.com“kharif crops had been sown across 531.25 lakh hectares as of July 10, 2026, compared with the normal area of 549.36 lakh hectares, around three per cent lower than the five-year”
  • Reported by 1 independent outlet

    The India Meteorological Department forecast below-normal rainfall for July.

    The article does not mention an IMD forecast for below-normal rainfall specifically for July.

    What the sources say
    • bbc.com“The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also forecast below-normal rainfall for July, raising concerns over the progress of crop sowing this year.”
  • Reported by 1 independent outlet

    The Ministry of Agriculture stated that water conservation has been accorded top priority amid the possibility of a weak monsoon.

    The article discusses irrigation and water sources, but does not state that the Ministry of Agriculture accorded top priority to water conservation.

    What the sources say
    • etvbharat.com“The ministry said that water conservation has been accorded top priority amid the possibility of a weak monsoon.”

Carried by this article

1
  • EssentialReported by 2 independent outlets

    The Ministry of Agriculture identified 315 districts that could face the impact of a weak monsoon, with 111 districts having less than 25 percent irrigation coverage classified as

    The article explicitly mentions the 315 districts and 111 high priority districts with less than 25% irrigation coverage.

    What the sources say
    • global-agriculture.com“The Ministry of Agriculture, in collaboration with ICAR, has identified 315 districts that could face the impact of a weak monsoon. Among these, 111 districts with less than 25% irrigation coverage have been classified as high priority”
    • dw.com“It has identified 111 districts with irrigation coverage of 25% or less as high-priority areas requiring intervention should monsoon conditions deteriorate.”

Built from the outside coverage Prism found. A thin news cycle can make a complete article look incomplete. Follow the citations and judge for yourself.

06The Report

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